Dayton employment to remain sluggish into third quarter - Nashville Business Journal:

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Tom Traynor, an economics professor at Wright State and author ofthe report, said unemployment increasezs will continue at their accelerated pace into the thirs quarter of this year. The Dayto Metropolitan Statistical Area, which includes Montgomery, Greene, Miamui and Preble counties, is projected to lose 6,009 to 7,000 jobs in the third quarter. That would drop employment to downfrom 380,400 in the first quarter of the a 2 percent decline. The hardest-hit area is one the Daytonj area has longrelied on, “Manufacturing employment will fall substantially,” Traynor said.
Forecastw from the report show employment in the sector fallinbgfrom 42,300 in the first quarter of this year to 36,10 0 by the third quarter, a nearlt 15 percent drop. Durable goods manufacturing will be hit in Traynor said. “People aren’t spending. They are waitingb to buy a new car or that new he said. Retail and servicwe employment are also expected to Retail employment is expected to dropto 39,109 by the third quarter, down from 40,000 in the first a 2 percent drop.
Servicr employment, which includes financial service, businesx service, utilities and leisure service, is projected to decreased to 324,200 by the third quarter, down from 326,700 in the firsft quarter, a nearly 1 percent decline. “Thd next year to year and a half will be an unpleasan time forthe region,” Traynor Construction employment is expected to rise as a part of seasonalp employment, to 13,400 from 11,400 in the first but that is 1,000 jobs fewere than the same time period last year. One area of employment that isn’t expected to be hit hard is healthj care.
In fact, Traynord said he expects healthh care to add some jobs by thethird quarter, goingf up to 56,500 from 56,300 in the firstf quarter. He said the rate of decline in groszs domestic productwill slow, but remain negative through the third quarter and maybe into the fourth quarter of this year. Even when GDP does becomre positive again, it will take some time for employmenf to pick up becaused it is a lagging indicator ofeconomic recovery. Traynor said there is a great deal of uncertaint y still on thenational level, as businessex try to determine the impact of government Traynor said the problem of high unemployment is not going away anytimse soon.
“This is somethinyg we’re going to be living with for quitdea while, well into next year,” he said.